Beyond Katrina

Incognito

Yeah, admittedly this one made my day. According to the Mail and Guardian, there was a protest march outside the United States embassy in Jakarta on Wednesday. "The protesters were demanding that the US government provide support for the victims of Hurricane Katrina, which killed 1500 and forced thousands from their homes".  I've spent some time in Indonesia, and so being pretty familiar with  this culture,  this protest "thing" amuses me to no end. And to see a pic of a demonstrator peering through his rather interesting mask, check it out here. Kinky.

77,000 Die Annually in Asia-Pacific from Climate Change

The Associated Press reports, "a recent WHO study estimated that climate change, directly or indirectly, contributes to about 77,000 deaths annually in Asia and the Pacific - about half of the world total attributed to global warming". This is mind boggling. Suddenly the death toll from Hurricane Katrina (which is considered to be most significant disaster in contemporary U.S. history) pales in comparison. Complete story here.

Mercy Corps:Relief for Cyclone Survivors in Pakistan

The beginning of south Asia's rainy season has brought calamity to the region, spawning deadly cyclones and massive floods. Hundreds have been killed and hundreds of thousands are displaced, having lost their homes to severe weather.

Pakistan has been particularly hard-hit: earlier this week a cyclone struck the nation's largest city,  Karachi, killing at least 230 people. More than 900,000 Pakistanis are affected by the flood and, because roads and bridges have been washed away, dozens of communities are trapped by swollen rivers.

We need your help to reach them.

Mercy Corps has three emergency response teams active in affected areas, working around the clock to determine the most urgent needs of displaced families. In the coming days, the organization plans to mobilize aid to at least 90,000 people through its office in Quetta. This assistance will include critical shelter and household items to help families that have lost everything.

Mercy Corps' programs in Pakistan date back to the mid-1980s, and the organization is currently helping more than 320,000 people through improved health care, vocational training and business development. Our response to the 2005 Pakistan Earthquake included medical care for over 100,000 survivors, construction of more than 6,000 cold-weather shelters and short-term employment for nearly 9,000 people.

We are collaborating with other agencies to determine the best ways to reach and deliver relief to Pakistani families in need.

Please donate to our South Asia Monsoon Fund to ensure that Mercy Corps can deliver aid quickly.

Pakistan: Storm/Cyclone Yemyin Information Bulletin No. 4

Source: International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)

Date: 28 Jun 2007

The Federation’s mission is to improve the lives of vulnerable people by mobilizing the power of humanity. It is the world’s largest humanitarian organization and its millions of volunteers are active in 185 countries.

In Brief

This Bulletin (no. 04/2007) is being issued for information only, and reflects the status of the situation and information available at this time. The Federation is not seeking funding or other assistance from donors for this operation at this time.

Summary: The number of people affected by cyclone Yemyin and subsequent flooding in Baluchistan province, in southern Pakistan, has rapidly increased to 800,000 across seven districts, with an unconfirmed death toll of 24. Many towns and villages have been inundated with flood waters, while houses have been washed away. There is extensive damage to roads and bridges.

The weather has eased in the neighbouring province of Sindh, but there is heavy flooding in 16 villages in Juhi union council in Dadu district to the north of Karachi city. Karachi, where over 200 people reported died as a result of the severe storm on 23 June 2007, is in clean up mode. However, there are ongoing health concerns due to the lack of clean water.

The Pakistan Red Crescent Society is providing emergency relief food and non-food items and emergency health care. The PRCS is being supported by the Federation and the International Committee of the Red Cross in its response.

The Situation

The flooding and damage caused by cyclone Yemyin in the southern Pakistan province of Baluchistan has now affected 800,000 people and claimed about 24 lives(1). According to the Baluchistan Provincial Relief Commissioner, seven districts have been affected by flooding – the coastal districts of Kech and Gwadar, and the north-eastern districts of Jalmugsi, Bolan, Lasbela, Nasirabad and Jaffarabad.

The cyclone struck the Baluchistan coast on Tuesday, 26th June, and while it has dissipated, it resulted in torrential rain in many areas. A severe storm on 23rd June caused over 200 deaths in Karachi city, in the adjoining Sindh province, and also affected the districts of Thatta and Dadu in Sindh.

The Baluchistan Provincial Relief Commissioner says there are no official estimates of the number of people rendered homeless, but he confirms 50,000 people have been evacuated from villages in the Kech valley to Turbat.

Note:

(1) This is an unofficial figure based on media reports. The Baluchistan Provincial Relief Commissioner’s office did not have an official figure at the time of reporting.

For further information specifically related to this operation please contact:

Pakistan Red Crescent Society: Khalid Kibriya (Secretary General); email: khalid_kibriya@yahoo.com; phone: +92 51 925 0407; fax +92 51 925 0408.

Federation country delegation in Pakistan: Asar ul Haq (disaster management programme manager); email asar.muhammad@ifrc.org ; phone +92 300 856 8136. Udaya Regmi (acting head of delegation); email: udaya.regmi@ifrc.org ; phone: +92 51 925 0416; mobile: +92 300 555 4502.

Federation South Asia regional delegation in India: Nina Nobel (acting head of regional delegation); email: nina.nobel@ifrc.org; phone: +91.11. 2411.1125; fax: +91.11. 2411.1128

Federation Secretariat in Geneva (Asia Pacific department): Christine South, (regional officer South Asia); email christine.south@ifrc.org; phone +41 22 730 4529; fax +4122 733 0395

South Asia weather toll rises, storm nears India

Reader Melissa Packard just wrote to inquire as to what organizations (besides the Red Cross) are organizing relief for those impacted by the Pakistani storms. I understand that relief is slow in coming, but I am looking into that now.  There are reports that Pakistan refused relief from the U.N...?News coming out of this area is a bit disjointed...it's hard to tell what really is happening there. This is the latest news article I can find:

Pakistani police have fired teargas to break up a protest by angry cyclone survivors as rescuers struggled to reach communities cut off by floods affecting 900,000 people. Continue here.

Aid pleas after Pakistan cyclone

Very grim situation in Pakistan this morning...BBC News reports, "some 800,000 people have now been hit by flooding in Pakistan's Balochistan province, with hundreds of thousands of homes destroyed, officials say, Many of them are without electricity or drinking water four days after a cyclone hit coastal districts. Eyewitnesses say there is almost no sign of government relief getting to the affected areas. Continue at BBC News.

Cyclone 04B off the Indian coastline

If India hasn't had enough severe weather woes, there is now a cyclone 04B forming...It is currently intensifying and and tracking the same ground as cyclone 03B...heading northwest into mainland India. It could potentially make landfall tomorrow as a tropical storm.   

WTIO31 PGTW 281500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//  
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280721Z JUN 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 19.5N 85.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 20.6N 85.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 21.5N 84.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM REPORTING STATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF INDIA SUPPORT A SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 35 KTS. THE
SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CHINA MOVES EASTWARD, RIDGING WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TC 04B AND NUDGE THE TRACK A BIT WESTWARD
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER TC 04B IS
MODERATE, WITH A STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER, TC 04B WILL
MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 280721Z JUN 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 280730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

India's shocking failure to provide hurricane warnings for Pakistan

courtesy, NASA Earth Observatory. ( NASA image by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team at Goddard Space Flight Center).See NASA's write up on the storm here.

Well to be honest with you, my plans were to track Cyclone 03B. However, there was a total lack of information about the storm, even from Reuters.  I assumed the storm had dissipated, hence the lack of information. However, Dr. Jeff Masters (Weather Underground) reports today that  "India's Meteorological Department (IMD)... failed to provide adequate warnings for [the] devastating tropical cyclone that hit Pakistan. Masters says he won't make judgement until all the facts are in but as of right no w he "can't fathom any excuse that can account for what appears, at best, to be criminal incompetence". Hmmm...criminal incompetence? Those are some strong words there especially for Dr. Masters who is a conservative kind of guy.  Weather Underground blogger Margie Kieper reports, "Cyclone 03B caused devastation to coastal regions in Pakistan, leaving approximately 250,000 people homeless, mainly in the Balochistan area. There were reports of people clinging to trees or on the roof of their homes, and the government unable to rescue them or to provide food, water, or shelter, as rains washed out roads and winds delayed access by helicopter. There are also a number of missing boats, and news of several rescues at sea".  I'll be reporting more on this story as news filters in. In the meantime see Dr. Master's post here and Margie Kieper's View from the Surface post here.

Tropical Outlook for June 25, 2007

The tropics are quiet in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico... and nothing is expected to develop in the next week or so. However, the middle east is facing another potentially impactful storm- TC 03B.  See More weather chaos in South Asia. As of this evening TC 03B has improved in organization, has banding convection near its center and a good low level circulation. Landfall is expected near the Iranian coastline and rains from the system could potentially stir up some pretty intense storm surge. Interestingly this will impact the same areas that endured the wrath of Cyclone Gonu, just a few weeks ago--The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and inland Oman. Here is the latest visible satellite imagery for TC 03B:

Margie Kieper's Gonu Wrap Up

One of my favorite weather bloggers, Margie Kieper, has posted a nice update on Gonu's aftermath, along with good pics & links to news articles and videos,  here.