Beyond Katrina

Cyclone 04B off the Indian coastline

If India hasn't had enough severe weather woes, there is now a cyclone 04B forming...It is currently intensifying and and tracking the same ground as cyclone 03B...heading northwest into mainland India. It could potentially make landfall tomorrow as a tropical storm.   

WTIO31 PGTW 281500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//  
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280721Z JUN 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B WARNING NR 001    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 86.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 86.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 19.5N 85.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 20.6N 85.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 21.5N 84.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST
OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM REPORTING STATIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF INDIA SUPPORT A SUSTAINED WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 35 KTS. THE
SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST. AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CHINA MOVES EASTWARD, RIDGING WILL
BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TC 04B AND NUDGE THE TRACK A BIT WESTWARD
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER TC 04B IS
MODERATE, WITH A STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER, TC 04B WILL
MAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 280721Z JUN 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 280730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z AND 291500Z.//
NNNN

Tropical Outlook for June 25, 2007

The tropics are quiet in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico... and nothing is expected to develop in the next week or so. However, the middle east is facing another potentially impactful storm- TC 03B.  See More weather chaos in South Asia. As of this evening TC 03B has improved in organization, has banding convection near its center and a good low level circulation. Landfall is expected near the Iranian coastline and rains from the system could potentially stir up some pretty intense storm surge. Interestingly this will impact the same areas that endured the wrath of Cyclone Gonu, just a few weeks ago--The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and inland Oman. Here is the latest visible satellite imagery for TC 03B:

Margie Kieper's Gonu Wrap Up

One of my favorite weather bloggers, Margie Kieper, has posted a nice update on Gonu's aftermath, along with good pics & links to news articles and videos,  here.

40,000 trapped in Iran floods

TEHRAN: Flash floods caused by cyclone Gonu have killed 12 people, injured nine and trapped 40,000 others in southeastern Iran, news reports said Saturday. Continue at the Daily Times.

The Black Swan Syndrome: How Cyclone Gonu is Raising Oil Prices

“A Black Swan, by the way, is the term philosopher Nassim Taleb uses for a low probability, high impact event; they are so named because until Europeans found Black Swans everywhere in Australia, they were considered so rare as to be statistically insignificant. A cyclone impairing or destroying production capacity in the world’s most important oil region certainly qualifies as a Black Swan.”

Great post questioning the potential "skulduggery involved in bumping up the price [of oil] when a disaster is on the cards" by Fujairah blogger, Geoff Pound, here.

Death from Gonu rises to 70; Iranian villages devastated

TEHERAN, Iran - The death toll from Cyclone Gonu rose to 70 on Saturday when Iranian state media reported nine new deaths from the storm. Residents of deep southern Iran reported massive devastation in some small desert villages, with one man saying every house in his hometown had been swept away by floods. Continue at the Kahleej Times.

GONU - death toll rises to 54

article here.

Gonu leaves trail of havoc in Muscat

DELUGE IN OMAN:         Residents of the city known as the `Geneva of the Middle East' spoke of a night of horror as the cyclone caused floodwaters to tear into homes.

I like this article focused on first hand accounts of Gonu's wrath in Muscat. And believe me I can relate...I still get the cold chills when I hear the word "deluge'...

Check it out here.

Videos of Gonu by Citizen Journalists

...and here's over a dozen You Tubes (videos) of the wrath of Gonu. Check it out  here.

Blogger's Photo of Flooded McDonald's in Oman --Gonu

Unfortunately this one is de ja vu for me. A blogger in Oman has posted a pic of a McDonalds fast food restaurant which is  almost completely submerged by flood waters. This one really gives you some perspective of what these folks are dealing with.