Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Adjusts Clock From 7 to 5 Minutes Before Midnight; “
Deteriorating” Global Situation Cited on Nuclear Weapons and New Factor: Climate
Change.
WASHINGTON, D.C. and LONDON, ENGLAND /// January 17, 2007 /// The Bulletin of the
Atomic Scientists (BAS) is moving the minute hand of the Doomsday Clock two minutes closer to
midnight. It is now 5 minutes to midnight. Reflecting global failures to solve the problems posed
by nuclear weapons and the climate crisis, the decision by the BAS Board of Directors was made in
consultation with the Bulletin’s Board of Sponsors, which includes 18 Nobel Laureates.
BAS announced the Clock change today at an unprecedented joint news conference held at the
American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington, DC, and the Royal Society in
London. In a statement supporting the decision to move the hand of the Doomsday Clock, the BAS
Board focused on two major sources of catastrophe: the perils of 27,000 nuclear weapons, 2000 of
them ready to launch within minutes; and the destruction of human habitats from climate change. In
articles by 14 leading scientists and security experts writing in the January-February issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (http://www.thebulletin.org), the potential for
catastrophic damage from human-made technologies is explored further.
Created in 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Doomsday Clock has been adjusted
only 17 times prior to today, most recently in February 2002 after the events of 9/11.
By moving the hand of the Clock closer to midnight — the figurative end of civilization — the
BAS Board of Directors is drawing attention to the increasing dangers from the spread of nuclear
weapons in a world of violent conflict, and to the catastrophic harm from climate change that is
unfolding. The BAS statement explains: "We stand at the brink of a Second Nuclear Age. Not since
the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has the world faced such perilous
choices. North Korea’s recent test of a nuclear weapon, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, a renewed
emphasis on the military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to adequately secure nuclear
materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and
Russia are symptomatic of a failure to solve the problems posed by the most destructive technology
on Earth."
The BAS statement continues: "The dangers posed by climate change are nearly as dire as those
posed by nuclear weapons. The effects may be less dramatic in the short term than the destruction
that could be wrought by nuclear explosions, but over the next three to four decades climate change
could cause irremediable harm to the habitats upon which human societies depend for survival."
Stephen Hawking, a BAS sponsor, professor of mathematics at the University of Cambridge, and a
fellow of The Royal Society, said: "As scientists, we understand the dangers of nuclear weapons and
their devastating effects, and we are learning how human activities and technologies are affecting
climate systems in ways that may forever change life on Earth. As citizens of the world, we have a
duty to alert the public to the unnecessary risks that we live with every day, and to the perils we
foresee if governments and societies do not take action now to render nuclear weapons obsolete and
to prevent further climate change."
Kennette Benedict, executive director, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said: "As we stand at
the brink of a Second Nuclear Age and at the onset of unprecedented climate change, our way of
thinking about the uses and control of technologies must change to prevent unspeakable destruction
and future human suffering."
Sir Martin Rees, president of The Royal Society, professor of cosmology and astrophysics ,
master of Trinity College at the University of Cambridge, and a BAS sponsor, said: "Nuclear weapons
still pose the most catastrophic and immediate threat to humanity, but climate change and emerging
technologies in the life sciences also have the potential to end civilization as we know it."
Lawrence M. Krauss, professor of physics and astronomy at Case Western Reserve University, an a
BAS sponsor, said: "In these dangerous times, scientists have a responsibility to speak truth to
power especially if it might provoke actions to reduce threats from the preventable technological
dangers currently facing humanity. To do anything else would be negligent."
Ambassador Thomas Pickering, a BAS director and co-chair of the International Crisis Group,
said: "Although our current situation is dire, we have the means today to successfully address
these global problems. For example, through vigorous diplomacy and international agencies like the
International Atomic Energy Agency, we can negotiate and implement agreements that could protect us
all from the most destructive technology on Earth—nuclear weapons."
Highlights of the new statement from the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists include the
following:
- "The second nuclear era, unlike the dawn of the first nuclear age in 1945, is characterized by
a world of porous national borders, rapid communications that facilitate the spread of technical
knowledge, and expanded commerce in potentially dangerous dual-use technologies and materials. The
Pakistan-based network that provided nuclear technologies to Libya, North Korea, and Iran, is an
example of the new challenges confronting the international community."
- "Sixteen years after the end of the Cold War, following substantial reductions in nuclear
weapons by the United States and Russia, the two major powers have now stalled in their progress
toward deeper reductions in their arsenals."
- "More than 1400 metric tons of highly enriched uranium and approximately 500 tons of plutonium
are distributed worldwide at some 140 sites, in unguarded civilian power plants and university
research reactors, as well as in military facilities."
- "Global warming poses a dire threat to human civilization that is second only to nuclear
weapons. Through flooding and desertification, climate change threatens the habitats and
agricultural resources that societies depend upon for survival. As such, climate change is also
likely to contribute to mass migrations and even to wars over arable land, water, and other natural
resources."
- "The prospect of civilian nuclear power development in countries around the world raises
further concerns about the availability of nuclear materials. Growth in nuclear power is
anticipated to be especially high in Asia, where Japan is planning to bring on line five new plants
by 2010, and China intends to build 30 nuclear reactors by 2020."
- "Several factors are driving the turn to nuclear power— aging nuclear reactors, rising energy
demands, a desire to diversify energy portfolios and reduce reliance on fossil fuels, and the need
to reduce carbon emissions that cause climate change. Yet expansion of nuclear power increases the
risks of nuclear proliferation."
The BAS statement also outlines a number of steps that, if taken immediately, could help to
prevent disaster, including the following:
- Reduce the launch readiness of U.S. and Russian nuclear forces and completely remove nuclear
weapons from the day-to-day operations of their militaries.
- Reduce the number of nuclear weapons by dismantling, storing, and destroying more than 20,000
warheads over the next 10 years, as well as greatly increasing efforts to locate, store, and secure
nuclear materials in Russia and elsewhere.
- Stop production of nuclear weapons material, including highly enriched uranium and plutonium—w
hether in military or civilian facilities.
- Engage in serious and candid discussion about the potential expansion of nuclear power
worldwide. While nuclear energy production does not produce carbon dioxide, it does raise other
significant concerns, such as the health and environmental hazards of nuclear waste, the production
of nuclear materials that can be diverted to the production of weapons, and the safety and security
of the plants themselves.
ABOUT BAS AND THE CLOCK
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded in 1945 by University of Chicago scientists
who had worked on the Manhattan Project and were deeply concerned about the use of nuclear weapons
and nuclear war. In 1947 the Bulletin introduced its clock to convey the perils posed by nuclear
weapons through a simple design. The Doomsday Clock evoked both the imagery of apocalypse
(midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear explosion (countdown to zero). In 1949 Bulletin
leaders realized that movement of the minute hand would signal the organization’s assessment of
world events. The decision to move the minute hand is made by the Bulletin’s Board of Directors in
consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 18 Nobel Laureates. The Bulletin’s Doomsday
Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to nuclear weapons
and other threats. Additional information is available on the Web at
http://www.the bulletin.org.
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