Beyond Katrina

Sea Surface Temperature and Hurricane Bertha: NASA Earth Observatory

On land, the passage of a severe storm might be marked by fallen trees or swollen streams. In the ocean, a hurricane leaves a swath of cold water in its path. That trail of cold water marks the passage of Hurricane Bertha through the North Atlantic Ocean in this sea surface temperature image, taken by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 7, 2008. Water that is warm enough to fuel a hurricane—about 28 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit)—is yellow and orange, while cooler water is blue and white.

The warm water is pooled in three distinct regions. The largest of these regions extends east from Florida, Cuba, and Hispaniola. The Gulf Stream current is distinctly visible flowing north along the East Coast of the United States. The third region of warm water is isolated in the center of the image, separated from the rest of the warm water by the cool water left in Bertha’s wake.

This path of cold water was created by Bertha’s powerful winds. The wind churned the ocean, pushing sun-warmed surface water down and driving cool water from beneath to the surface. The swath of cold water follows the storm’s path north. Between July 3 and July 20, Bertha slowly tracked from the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, where it formed, across the Atlantic, gradually building and waning in strength. The storm curved north, skimmed past Bermuda, leaving the wake of cold water seen here, and then turned northeast until it broke apart over the chilly waters of the North Atlantic. Throughout its long lifetime, Bertha briefly reached Category 3 status, with winds approaching 195 kilometers per hour (120 miles per hour or 105 knots).

NASA image by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems.  Storm track data provided by Unisys.  Caption by Holli Riebeek.

See also: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/

 

Opinions vary on satellite's use as a tool for forecasting

Some at NOAA says it's vital for storm tracking, while others say that's a stretch

This excellent article by Eric Berger of the Houston Chronicle demystifies some of the confusion around the use of the QuickSCAT satellite as a forecasting tool. Check it out here.

Mediterranean brewing up for a hurricane

THE Mediterranean could start generating its own hurricanes if sea temperatures keep rising, a study has warned. At present hurricanes, originating far out in the Atlantic, blow westwards towards the Caribbean and America’s Gulf coast, and leave Europe’s coastline unscathed. Now scientists warn that climate change means that the Mediterranean is arming up so much it stores enough heat to trigger the formation of its own hurricanes. Continue at Times Online.

Why The NHC Will Continue to Improve on Forecasting Accuracy this Season

Dr. Jeff Masters has an excellent post today outlining why the National Hurricane Center  will "put out their best hurricane forecasts ever this season". In a nutshell:

• Dr. Rappaport, the acting director, is a highly respected and talented hurricane scientist

• the availability of a new hurricane tracking, intensity, and storm surge model called the HWRF--Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast Model.

• the reliable GFS and GFDL forecasting modelas have had upgrades since last hurricane season.

• Hurricane Hunters will be carrying SFMR instrument for the first time, which can measure winds speeds at the ocean surface everywhere the aircraft fly.

Closing the Gap - Reducing the Margin of Error:

Masters reports, The National Hurricane Center made their best track forecasts ever for storms in the Atlantic in 2006. Here are some stats for the analytical types:

• The mean track errors for 12 to 72 hour forecasts were 15% - 20% lower than during 2001-2005.

• Track errors for Atlantic storms have improved about 50% in the past 15 years (Figure 1) ---(This equates to saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars).

• The track error in 2006 for a 24 hour forecast was 58 miles; 112 miles for a 48 hour forecast; and 171 miles for a 72 hour forecast. Track errors for 96 and 120 hour forecasts were 236 miles and 305 miles--the second best on record (2003 set the record).

• NHC's long-range 120 hour forecasts had a significant bias to the west of 94 miles--about double the bias of what the computer models were forecasting. Thus, when the models correctly called for systems to recurve out to sea, NHC human forecasters tended to resist following what the models were saying.

More stats and graphs at Dr. Masters Blog Post, here.

THE AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON UP TO JULY 12

Some seasons are extremely active (2005) others are very quiet (1992), but the only thing that matters to those in the United States is how many strike land, where they strike and how strong they are when they strike.

You got it! And re the " how many" - it only takes one...  At any rate, good article from Steve Lyons (at the Weather Channel Blog) on how things are stacking up so far this hurricane season, here.

Katrina devastation not unrivaled, analysis finds

The Houston Chronicle: If the Great Storm of 1900 had hit Galveston two years ago, it would have inflicted $72 billion in damage, nearly as much as Hurricane Katrina, researchers say. Continue here.

Texas establishes regional severe storm research center

SSPEED is state's first hub for storm prediction, evacuation, disaster research

BY JADE BOYD
Rice News staff,

Legislation signed last week by Texas Gov. Rick Perry will make Rice University home to Texas' first research center focused exclusively on predicting and planning for disasters caused by hurricanes and tropical storms.

The new center -- the Severe Storm Prediction, Education and Evacuation from Disaster Center, or SSPEED -- will organize universities, researchers, emergency managers and private and public entities to better address severe storm impacts from New Orleans and Baton Rouge to Houston, Galveston and Brownsville.

"Our primary goal is to improve lead-time and accuracy of storm predictions and to deliver information in real time to emergency managers for improved evacuations and sheltering in place," said Center Director Phil Bedient, the Herman Brown Professor of Engineering and one of the nation's foremost experts on urban flooding.

The center is an academic and public partnership. Inaugural members include seven leading Texas universities, the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center, and Southeast Texas' largest council of local governments, the Houston-Galveston Area Council.

The SSPEED Center's partners will apply their expertise as follows:

•    Rice University -- Flood prediction and warning; urban hydrologic models; Web integration of real-time data; regional forecast testbed; public policy and response

•    University of Houston -- Educational outreach for public and high schools; infrastructure risk assessment

•    Louisiana State University -- Storm surge model prediction; evacuation and transportation planning

•    University of Texas-Austin -- Disaster planning; storm surge modeling; remotely sensed data; evacuation and transportation systems

•    Texas A&M and TAMU-Galveston -- Coastal flood evacuation; storm surge impacts; community response, land planning in the coastal zone

•    Texas Southern University -- Transportation systems and evacuation planning

•    University of Texas-Brownsville -- Coastal flood response; regional forecast testbed; international border issues

•    Houston-Galveston Area Council -- Evacuation planning and transportation management; lead governmental unit for operations and response

"The SSPEED Center will put Houston on the map as far as hurricanes and severe storm research are concerned, as well as focus attention on the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast to hopefully attract the resources that will be necessary to better prepare for flooding and hurricanes," said Center Co-director Hanadi Rifai, associate professor of environmental engineering at the University of Houston.

The center's research areas include:

•    Severe storm and hurricane research and storm surge prediction

•    Radar-based rainfall and flood warning systems for urban and coastal areas

•    Educational programs for workforce training and public awareness

•    Infrastructure risk assessment for sheltering and evacuation from disaster

•    Evacuation plans linked to the best warning and transportation systems and societal needs.

"The 2005 hurricane season clearly demonstrated the extreme and dire deficiencies that exist in storm prediction, disaster planning, and evacuation in the Gulf Coast region," said Bill King, who in 2005-2006 served on the Governor's Task Force on Evacuation, Transportation and Logistics. "SSPEED is the first center that will address severe storm prediction and impacts in the Gulf Coast Area, and it is well-positioned to respond to the focus areas identified by the Governor’s task force."

Bedient said the center plans to develop computer software capable of mapping flood inundation zones in real time using radar rainfall data. The system will also evaluate hurricane storm surges in real time, and it will link to evacuation scenarios and search-and-rescue operations that will contribute invaluable information for emergency managers.

The center also plans to quantify infrastructure risks and increase public awareness.

"Bringing together severe storm and real-time flood warnings with evacuation plans and efficient communication can improve the well-being of coastal communities faced with severe storms and natural disasters," Bedient said. "This is a key concept for our center, and it can only be accomplished through an academic, public and private partnership."

The legislation that created SSPEED was sponsored by Rep. Dennis Bonnen and Sen. Kyle Janek and unanimously passed both houses of the Texas Legislature this spring.

Source: Rice University

Storm lull irrelevant to season's peak, experts warn

"It can be a quiet season through July, then all of a sudden: Boom"

Richard Knapp, a senior forecaster at the National Hurricane Center in Miami tells the Palm Beach Post why it's too early to get complacent re hurricane season 2007 in this article.

Proenza Update

In the absence of any tropical activity it seems we hurricane watchers have plenty of time on our hands to focus on the issue du jour in hurricanesville...i.e. the  Bill Proenza hooplah. Proenza was on the Barometer Bob Show last night and was available to take questions from listeners.  Dr. Jeff Master's (Weather Underground) asked him where he got his numbers  "of [a] 16% and 10% improvement for 72-hour and 49-hour hurricane track forecasts made using QuikSCAT satellite data (his boss, acting NWS director Mary Glackin, said "I'm not willing to stand by those numbers.") Proenza cited a 2003 study. Dr. Masters has a post today focused on "just how important QuikSCAT is to hurricane forecasting". Wunderground Blogger, Margie Keiper (who also has a post today focused on the Proenza saga...Proenza in Media Whirl)  told Dr. Masters she has sourced a 2006 study focused on the QuikSCAT and plans to post it at  her blog, View From The Surface soon.

Know your oak this hurricane season

Horticulturist Theresa Friday espouses the differences between the Laurel Oak and the majestic Live Oak (my favorite tree)  - which look alike at first glance. She says knowing the difference in pruning and planting is important  because the Laurel Oak is   "very prone to failure in hurricane winds due to the weak wood and their tendency to decay. Laurel oaks may not be appropriate to plant near a home or other structure". For more details see this article.