Beyond Katrina

Gustav really was the worst, meteorologists say

Aha! I've been waiting for the dust to clear and the information to come forth as to why Cat 1 Gustav was such a formidable hurricane for Baton Rouge, exceeding the intensity and the damage wrought by Betsy and Andrew. Two LSU scientists weigh in here.

On another note, I wish the National Hurricane Center would change the policy of repeating the same hurricane names every few years. It creates  confusion for those of us who document them - and it doesn't seem to be the most  efficient way to do this in my humble opinion.

There are two invests in the Atlantic and  thankfully seems like neither are going to be very ominous at this point, nor are these systems heading for the Gulf of Mexico. Hopefully we gulf coasters are done for a while.

...IKE'S OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS...

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130058
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  47B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL    AL092008
800 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE'S OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES
...155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE.  STRONGER WINDS...
ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS MEASURED AT A NOAA BUOY
JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE IT STOPPED REPORTING.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...94.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

U.S. Coast Guard - Galveston Prepares for Ike

KATY, Texas (Sept., 12, 2008) Petty Officer 3rd Class Ryan Carlisle from Station Galveston completes boat checks at the Incident Command Post located at the Merrell Center during preparation for Huricane Ike. Personnel and small boats were repositioned inland and will remain until after the storm. (Coast Guard photo by PA1 Alan Haraf, District Eleven Public Affairs)

KATY, Texas (Sept., 12, 2008) Petty Officer 3rd Class Ryan Carlisle (left) and members of Station Galveston complete boat checks at the Incident Command Post in preparations of Hurricane Ike. Personnel and small boats were moved inland yesterday and will remain in position until after the storm passes. (Coast Guard photo by PA1 Alan Haraf, District Eleven Public Affairs)

KATY, Texas (Sept., 12, 2008) Members of Coast Guard Sector-Galveston prepare for Hurricane Ike at the Incident Command Post located in Katy, Texas. Personnel and small boats were repositioned to the location yesterday and will remain throughout the day and night until after the storm passes. (Coast Guard photo by PA1 Alan Haraf, District 11 Public Affairs)

Video: KATY, Texas (Sept 12. 2008) Captain Marcus Woodring, Deputy Commander of Sector Houston-Galveston, addresses Coast Guard members at this morning's All-Hands at the Incident Command Post about preparations for hurricane Ike. (Coast Guard video by PA1 Alan Haraf, District Eleven Public Affairs).

Ike is hours away from Galveston

Image of Hurricane Ike from the International Space Station. Image credit: NASA.

Just to put Ike's size in perspective check out this image from NASA, above. I am indebted to the good doc Jeff Masters for posting the image at his blog - and there are some great posts there in reference to Ike so check out his blog.

You would think Ike is supposed to make landfall in Baton Rouge given the way this city has responded to the storm today. Schools and businesses closed up early - we do have as much wind  it seems as we did for Rita - or possibly  more. A transformer blew last night so a lot of folks are out of power again - and I noticed that none of the intersections on Jefferson Highway had working traffic lights.

On another note, crafty veteran forecaster, Lixion Avila is on duty tonight - I enjoy getting his forecasts. In my opinion he adds some personality and  flavor to what is an otherwise dry activity - i.e. sending out forecast reports. In the 5:00 pm forecast advisory tonight he says

"STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION.  ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE".

Okay, Lix, that's all we need to do huh? piece of cake.  And I s'pose if Lix doesn't have the skill to predict precision intensity changes, then nobody does...

Ike's Storm Surge Could Rival Katrina's

Dr. Jeff Masters, Weather Underground, said in today's blog post that  wind isn't going to be the big news with Ike - it's going to be storm surge.

Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high.

Continue at Weather Underground.

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHES....

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF
PORT ARANSAS.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE.  STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Coastal Flood Warning - Orleans (Louisiana)

I am trying my best to ignore Hurricane Ike...I'm not fully recovered from Gustav. I am one of the few people in my Baton Rouge neighborhood that has electricity. never-the-less despite the fact that Ike is probably heading for Texas, Louisiana still continues to feel some impact. To wit:

The National Weather Service reports Coastal Flood Warning - Orleans (Louisiana) A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON....HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE INTO THE TEXAS COAST  EARLY SATURDAY. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL PILE WATER ONTO MISSISSIPPI COAST... ESPECIALLY HANCOCK COUNTY...ELEVATE WATER LEVELS ON LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND INCREASE TIDE LEVELS ON EAST FACING SHORES OF ORLEANS...SAINT BERNARD...AND PLAQUEMINES PARISHES. TANGIPAHOA-ST. TAMMANY-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-438 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PMCDT FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY. THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.HURRICANE IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TIDE LEVELS ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...ESPECIALLY HANCOCK COUNTY...EAST FACING SHORES AND TIDAL LAKES. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE EXPECTED MID-MORNING ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THESE STRONG EAST WINDS...TIDE LEVELS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED.AS THE WINDS SHIFT SOUTHEAST...THE EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS ANDMISSISSIPPI COAST THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TIDE LEVELS OF3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL CAN BE EXPECTED.FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING ROADWAYS...OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED. SOME AREAS NEAR LAKE MAUREPAS ALREADY HAVE WATER LEVELS NEARING LOCAL ROADS.NAVIGATIONAL LOCK OPERATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES. PROPERTIES NEAR THE BEACH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR BAYS...ESPECIALLY IN HANCOCKCOUNTY...WILL BE AFFECTED.A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IMMINENT. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY. SOME ROADWAYS MAY BECOME FLOODEDAND IMPASSABLE.

Visualizations: Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Hanna

This visualization from NOAA shows Hurricane Ike over the  southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane Hanna is above just off the coast of Florida.  GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.  September 5, 2008  16:41:47

Hurricane Hunters, Mission 28 to Gustav just took off

Hurricane Hunters are heading to investigate Gustav. Check updates here.

Read it and weep - tropical outlook 8/31/08 2:55 am CT

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
GUSTAV...LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 170 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM
HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAYAGUANA IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA
ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ 
FORECASTER STEWART