Beyond Katrina

Tropical Depression 4 Forms - Monitoring GOM system - Flossie in the Pacific

As of this am there are two systems of concern to  the U.S. mainland:

Invest 90L has been upgraded to TD status. It is now Tropical Depression Number 4. The NHC is issuing advisories. Here is the first - Public Advisory No. 1:

000
WTNT34 KNHC 131454
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

...FOURTH DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE FAR 
EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES
...840 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 2000 MILES...
3220 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 
21 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT  24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS 
FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB
...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...12.0 N...
31.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS ...35 MPH.MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

Early Track:

The second system"of concern" relates to the Gulf of Mexico. From the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS 
FORMED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
CANCUN MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES 
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD 
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNASSIANCE PLANE IS 
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

See satellite loop here. 

In the eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Flossie is a category 4 hurricane with the models agreeing that "she" should pass within 50-100 miles south of the Big Island of Hawaii around Tuesday afternoon. 

Storm Booster May Be No-Show

TAMPA - Finally, there may be some good news about this hurricane season.A La Nina weather pattern - a cooling of the Pacific Ocean that enhances hurricane development - may not appear this season.Forecasters at the National Climate Prediction Center said Thursday that one won't form by August. After that it's a coin toss, with a 50-50 chance of a La Nina forming. Continue at the Tampa Tribune.

Pacific Storm Man-YI is Intensifying

Weather Underground blogger Margie Kieper can't seem to stay away from the blogging in spite of her intentions to hang it up for a while :)...She updated her blog last night with a comment about the Pacific storm Man-yi:

regards Man-Yi, next 24 hours (00Z 11 Jul to 00Z 12 Jul) fasten your seat belt.

Looks like she's right ---the storm is bombing....

 

Mexico Dodges Lane, Helene Intensifying

Pacific Hurricane Lane made landfall this morning as a dangerous category 3 storm. The good news is the storm landed in a very densley populated area northwest of Mazaltan so Mexico was spared the brundt.  Lane has since been downgraded to a tropical storm and is dissipating rapidly as it makes its way over mountainous terrain.

Meanwhile over in the Altantic, Helene has ramped up to a large and impressive hurricane with a humungous eye stretching 30 miles in diameter. It appears that Lane will not be a threat to land with the exception of possibly Bermuda.

Hurricane Gordon is still 'alive and kickin' but the storm presents no threat to land.

Fish Storm Outlook

I am finding myself very uninterested in this year's Atlantic hurricane season - It's hard to muster it up to talk about fish storms, unless there is something unique about them...like they explode suddenly into cat 5's, or they set some record for lowest pressure. 

I guess I'm like a firefighter, first responder, police officer, beat journalist or anyone else whose vocation is centered around intensity - it's like none of us wish for fires, earthquakes, accidents, or dangerous hurricanes that will impact property and/or lives - yet at the same time  we are hardwired to be attracted to 'em in some way. Having said this, here is the latest and somewhat mundane Atlantic fish storm update...

Hurricane Gordon is heading toward its demise due to strong windshear and dry air. Looks like ole Gordie will remain a fish storm until it departs this earth -  no threat to land.

Helene is now a hurricane that could impact Bermuda or the Canadian Provinces. Its potential to impact the U.S. is very slim.

a strong tropical wave (ho hum) is just off the Cape Verde African coast and is heading northwest to sea. 

The most interesting thing happening in weatherville is Hurricane Lane, a strong and dangerous  category 3  hurricane (Pacific) which is responsible for one death and is heading toward Mexico.