Regarding the failed forecasts for this year's prediction of an above average hurricane season, I concur with the questions posed by Del Stone, Jr. at Northwest Florida Daily News. To wit:
"It all seems so tiresome, doesn’t it? The shrill predictions of
disaster, the finger-pointing and politics when a disaster actually
occurs and the scorn when it doesn’t?...For instance, is it useful or even responsible to predict how active a
season will be when so many of the forecasts are wrong? This year was
expected to be an above-normal season, with an ACE Index (a measure of
storm intensity) well above the mean. Every prediction, with the
exception of the National Hurricane Center’s range of 13 to 17 storms,
was wrong. What purpose do these numbers serve beyond scaring people? Do they make
one bit of difference in the way coastal residents prepare for a storm?"
For Stone's conclusions see this op ed.
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